پیوندهای مفید
اخبار و اعلانات
آمار
| تعداد نشریات | 31 |
| تعداد شمارهها | 834 |
| تعداد مقالات | 8,015 |
| تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 14,854,270 |
| تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 9,587,426 |
Monetary Policy Analysis in Iran’s Economy; A Welfare based DSGE Approach | ||
| International Journal of Business and Development Studies | ||
| دوره 13، شماره 2، بهمن 2021، صفحه 165-191 اصل مقاله (813.23 K) | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22111/ijbds.2021.6755 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| Afshin Heidarpour1؛ Mosayeb pahlavani2 | ||
| 1Assistant professor of Economics, Department of Economics, Majlis Research Center, Tehran, Iran, E-mail: afshinheidar@atu.ac.ir. | ||
| 2Associate Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, M.pahlavani9@gmail.com | ||
| چکیده | ||
| In recent decades, many countries have improved systematic control over monetary policy and stabilized inflation at moderate levels. There is a great literature on how to conduct a monetary policy. A lot of macroeconomists (for example Taylor, McCallum, Woodford and others) proposed specific monetary policy strategies, regimes and rules. This paper considers a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE), and two basic factors have been applied. The first one is a belief that monetary policy has impact on real economic activity in the short run. This effect comes from the presence of rigidities, which give rise to non-neutral effects of a monetary policy. The second factor is a considerable improvement under theoretical frameworks used for monetary policy analysis. The research also presents a sensitivity analysis of the optimal rules to deep structural parameters and investigate properties of an optimal simple rule with respect to prevailing type of shocks. Finally, the study highlights how an optimal policy rule depends on model structure, on the model calibration and nominal rigidities. According to the research findings, based on the theoretical expectations, the effect of a positive shock inflicted on the government investment leads to increase and gradual accumulation of fixed capital formation in the public sector. Among estimated parameters consumption is first affected and reduces, then employment increases consequently, finally production will also be affected. Also with the shock of oil revenues, increased oil revenues results in public investment at first, because the increase in oil revenues, the government increases development expenditure. Though increase in development expenditure is more than Increase in current expenditure. Enhancing development expenditure & construction spending causes total spending increase and as a result of increased production of oil income, consumption and total investment will rise. This increase leads to inflation too. Though by increasing the inflation resulted from oil revenues, the monetary authority will react through reducing the growth rate of the monetary base. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| Systematic control؛ Inflation؛ monetary policy؛ DSGE | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
Benchimol, J,(2011).Base line new Keynesian DSGE model, PhD Doctoral theses, pantheon Sorbonne University,.
Ben-Gad, Michael & Pearlman, Joseph & Sabuga, Ivy,( 2021). "An analysis of monetary and macroprudential policies in a DSGE model with reserve requirements and mortgage lending," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
Christiano, L. J., Eichenbaum, M., & Evans, C. (2005). ‘Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic E¤ects of a Shock to Monetary Policy. Journal of Political Economy, 113(1), 1–45.
Coibion, O., Gorodnichenk, Y., Weber, M., (2019). Monetary policy communications and their effects on household inflation expectations, NBER Working Paper No. 25482 (2019)
Cooley, Thomas F., and Gary D. Hansen, (1989) “Inflation Tax in a Real Business Cycle Model,” American Economic Review 79, no. 4.
Fukava, K, (2013), "Estimation of an Empirical FAVAR Model and DSGE Model for Evaluating Effects of Government Spending in Japan.
Galí , Jordi (2002). “New Perspectives on Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle.” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 8767.
Galí, J., (2008)" Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle", Princeton University Press and copyrighted.
Goodfriend M. and. McCallum. B. T, (2007) “Banking and Interest Rates in Monetary Policy Analysis: A Quantitative Exploration”. Journal of Monetary Economics, 54:1480– 1507,
Ireland Peter N., (2003), “Implementing the Friedman Rule”, Review of Economic Dynamics, PP. 120-134
Jaromír Tonner & Jiří Polanský & Osvald Vašíček, (2011). "A Baseline Model for Monetary Policy Analysis," Bulletin of the Czech Econometric Society, the Czech Econometric Society, vol. 16(26).
Lou, D. (2008). “Optimal Simple Money Rules in a Small Open economy”, PhD Doctoral theses, Carleton University, 2008
Lucas Robert E. and Stocky Nancy L., (1983), “Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy in an Economy without Capital”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 12,141-4.
Maliszewski, W. (2009) “Fiscal Policy Rules for Oil Producing Countries: A Welfare-Based Assessment”, IMF Working paper WP/09/126.
McCallum,B. and Goodfrind M., (1987), “Demand for Money: Theoretical Studies”, The New Palgrave Dictionary, PP. 775-78.
Rohe,O. (2012) “New Keynesian DSGE Models: Theory, Empirical Implementation, and Specification”, PhD Doctoral theses , Wirtschaftswis, senschaftlichen Fakulta¨t der Universitat Regensburg,.
Schorfheide. S. (2007), An and F. “Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models”. Econometric Reviews, 26(2-4):113–172,
Semko, R. (2013) “Optimal Economic Policy and Oil Price Shocks in Russia”, Economic Research, ISSN 1331-677X , , Volume 26(2): 69-82
Toruik, R. (2009) “Why do some resource-abundant countries succeed while others do not”, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Volume 25, Number 2,.
Walsh, Carl E, (2010) Monetary Theory and policy. 3rd ed. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Woodford, M. (1996). Control of the Public Debt: A Requirement for Price Stability? NBER Working Paper, Number 5684.
Woodford, M. (1998). Public Debt and the Price Level. Manuscript, Princeton University.
Woodford, M. (2001). Fiscal Requirements for Price Stability. NBER Working Papers,Number 8072. | ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 712 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 411 |
||