پیوندهای مفید
اخبار و اعلانات
آمار
| تعداد نشریات | 31 |
| تعداد شمارهها | 834 |
| تعداد مقالات | 8,015 |
| تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 14,853,142 |
| تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 9,586,956 |
Estimation of the Effects of Macroeconomic Variables on the Impossible Trinity | ||
| International Journal of Business and Development Studies | ||
| مقاله 4، دوره 15، شماره 2، اسفند 2023، صفحه 61-81 اصل مقاله (1.27 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: Research Paper | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22111/ijbds.2024.47719.2087 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| Fatemeh Amini Bazyani* 1؛ Esmaiel Abounoori2؛ Alireza Erfani3 | ||
| 1Department of Economics, Semnan University, Semnan-Iran. | ||
| 2Faculty of Economics and Management, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran | ||
| 3Department of Economics, Semnan University, Semnan-Iran | ||
| چکیده | ||
| The examination of exchange rate management, interest rate, and capital market openness is one of the topics under discussion in macroeconomic policies. The assumption in maintaining equilibrium among these three policies is that any change in one of these policies requires an appropriate change in the combination of the other two policies, and there is always an equilibrium among them. The selection of three indicators; exchange rate stability, monetary policy independence, and financial market openness, is well known as the Mundell-Fleming model or the Impossible trinity. The current study explores the common determinants of exchange rate stability, monetary policy independence, and financial market openness using the panel data from a period of 2001 to 2020. Initially, using economic and structural principles, the common determinants of the impossible trinity policy are identified, then parameter estimation is carried out using the SUR model. Finally, it is examined how deviations from the impossible trinity assumption create a political pressure that may lead to a crisis unless policymakers adjust a proper combination compatible with it. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| exchange rate stability؛ financial market openness؛ impossible trinity؛ monetary policy independence؛ SUR | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
- Aizenman J, Chinn MD, Ito H. Assessing the emerging global financial architecture: Measuring the trilemma's configurations over time. National bureau of economic research; 2008 Dec 5.
- Aizenman J, Chinn MD, Ito H. Surfing the waves of globalization: Asia and financial globalization in the context of the trilemma. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies. 2011 Sep 1;25(3):290-320.
- Aizenman J. A modern reincarnation of Mundell-Fleming's trilemma. Economic Modelling. 2019 Sep 1;81:444-54.
- Aizenman J, Ito H. The political-economy trilemma. Open Economies Review. 2020 Nov;31:945-75.
- Alesina AF, Grilli VU, Milesi-Ferretti GM. The political economy of capital controls.
- Amini Bazyani, F. Examination of Determinants of Exchange Rate Stability, Monetary Policy Independence and Financial Market Openness. Master's thesis, Faculty of Social Sciences, Razi University, Kermanshah. (2016).
- Berger H, Sturm JE, De Haan J. An empirical investigation into exchange rate regime choice and exchange rate volatility. Available at SSRN 263948. 2000 Mar.
- Chinn MD, Ito H. What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions. Journal of development economics. 2006 Oct 1;81(1):163-92.
- Collins SM. On becoming more flexible: Exchange rate regimes in Latin America and the Caribbean. Journal of Development Economics. 1996 Oct 1;51(1):117-38.
- Dreyer JS. Determinants of exchange-rate regimes for currencies of developing countries: some preliminary results. World Development. 1978 Apr 1;6(4):437-45.
- Edwards S. The determinants of the choice between fixed and flexible exchange-rate regimes.
- FATTAHI S, SOHAILI K, FATTAHI H. Analysis of exchange rate stability, monetary policy independence and financial market openness in Iranian economy: Mundell-Fleming approach.
- Bhattarai M, Hammig M. Institutions and the environmental Kuznets curve for deforestation: a crosscountry analysis for Latin America, Africa and Asia. World development. 2001 Jun 1;29(6):995-1010.
- Han X, Wei SJ. International transmissions of monetary shocks: Between a trilemma and a dilemma. Journal of International Economics. 2018 Jan 1;110:205-19.
- Heller HR. Determinants of exchange rate practices. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. 1978 Aug 1;10(3):308-21.
- Holden P, Holden M, Suss EC. The determinants of exchange rate flexibility: an empirical investigation. The Review of Economics and Statistics. 1979 Aug 1:327-33.
- Hosseinzadeh Yousefabad, S. and Haghighat, A. Financial Economics, 2014; 7(25): 123-146.
- Ito H, Kawai M. New measures of the trilemma hypothesis: Implications for Asia. Springer Japan; 2014.
- Ito H, Kawai M. Determinants of the trilemma policy combination.
- Johnston BR, Tamirisa NT. Why Do Countries Use Capital Controls?. International Monetary Fund. IMF Working Paper 181. Washington, DC; 1998.
-Juhn G, Mauro P. Long-run determinants of exchange rate regimes: A simple sensitivity analysis. Washington DC: International Monetary Fund; 2002 Jun 1.
- Leblang D. Are Capital Controls Obsolete? Evidence from the Developed and Developing World, 1967–1986. International Studies Quarterly. 1997;41:435-54.
- Lin S, Ye H. The role of financial development in exchange rate regime choices. Journal of International Money and Finance. 2011 Jun 1;30(4):641-59.
- Méon PG, Rizzo JM. The viability of fixed exchange rate commitments: does politics matter? A theoretical and empirical investigation. Open economies review. 2002 Apr;13:111-32.
- Mundell RA. Capital mobility and stabilization policy under fixed and flexible exchange rates. Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science/Revue canadienne de economiques et science politique. 1963 Nov;29(4):475-85.
- Nabioni, A., Changi Ashtiani, A. and Allahverdi Zadeh, S. Investigating the Exchange Rate and Gross Domestic Product in the Development of Non-Oil Exports in Iran. First National Conference on Economic Activities Development, Tehran, Payam Noor University. (2008).
- Obstfeld M, Shambaugh JC, Taylor AM. The trilemma in history: tradeoffs among exchange rates, monetary policies, and capital mobility. Review of economics and statistics. 2005 Aug 1;87(3):423-38.
- Poirson H. How do countries choose their exchange rate regime?.
-Popper H, Mandilaras A, Bird G. Trilemma stability and international macroeconomic archetypes in developing economies. Department of Economics, University of Surrey Department of Economics Discussion Papers. 2011 Mar 30;311.
- Puckelwald J. The influence of the macroeconomic trilemma on monetary policy-A functional coefficient approach for the Taylor rule. In16th Conference of the Research Network Macroeconomics and Macroeconomic Policies (FMM) 2012.
- Quinn DP, Inclan C. The origins of financial openness: A study of current and capital account liberalization. American Journal of Political Science. 1997 Jul 1:771-813.
- Rey H. Dilemma not trilemma: the global financial cycle and monetary policy independence. National Bureau of Economic Research; 2015 May 18.
- Rizzo JM. The economic determinants of the choice of an exchange rate regime: a probit analysis. Economics letters. 1998 Jun 1;59(3):283-7.
- Savvides A. Real exchange rate variability and the choice of exchange rate regime by developing countries. Journal of International Money and Finance. 1990 Dec 1;9(4):440-54.
- Sedqi H. Exchange Rate Volatility, Financial Imbalances and Optimal Monetary Policy (in Persian). Journal of Monetary and Banking Research, 2011;4(9):179-204.
- Tornell A, Westermann F, Martinez L. The positive link between financial liberalization, growth and crises. | ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 466 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 455 |
||