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Mirjalili, Seyed Hossein, Safari, Omid. (1404). Fiscal Policy Uncertainty and Economic Activities in Iran’s Provinces. نشریه علمی دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان, 17(1), 75-101. doi: 10.22111/ijbds.2025.51549.2218
Seyed Hossein Mirjalili; Omid Safari. "Fiscal Policy Uncertainty and Economic Activities in Iran’s Provinces". نشریه علمی دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان, 17, 1, 1404, 75-101. doi: 10.22111/ijbds.2025.51549.2218
Mirjalili, Seyed Hossein, Safari, Omid. (1404). 'Fiscal Policy Uncertainty and Economic Activities in Iran’s Provinces', نشریه علمی دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان, 17(1), pp. 75-101. doi: 10.22111/ijbds.2025.51549.2218
Mirjalili, Seyed Hossein, Safari, Omid. Fiscal Policy Uncertainty and Economic Activities in Iran’s Provinces. نشریه علمی دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان, 1404; 17(1): 75-101. doi: 10.22111/ijbds.2025.51549.2218

Fiscal Policy Uncertainty and Economic Activities in Iran’s Provinces

International Journal of Business and Development Studies
مقاله 4، دوره 17، شماره 1، خرداد 2025، صفحه 75-101    اصل مقاله (1.15 M)
نوع مقاله: Research Paper
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22111/ijbds.2025.51549.2218
نویسندگان
Seyed Hossein Mirjalili1؛ Omid Safari* 2
1Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Institute for Humanities and Cultural Studies, Iran, Tehran.
2PhD in Economics, University of Tabriz, Iran, Tabriz.
چکیده
The positive impacts of fiscal policy could be undermined when accompanied by uncertainty. We examined the effect of fiscal policy uncertainty on economic activities in the provinces of Iran. It includes production, investment, unemployment, and economic participation of the active workforce in these provinces, taking into account the effects of economic sanctions imposed on the economy. We employed two types of shocks: fiscal level shock (representing fiscal policy) and its volatility shock (as fiscal policy uncertainty), which derived from a specified fiscal reaction function. We estimated a Panel VAR model using provincial data from 2003 to 2020. The results of the impulse response function indicated that following the impulse in the fiscal policy uncertainty, the response shows an increase in the unemployment rate in the short run, a decrease in the capital investment, and an increase in the inflation rate in the short and medium terms. In the medium and long term, the response indicates a decrease in GDP growth and a reduction in the economic participation rate of the active workforce.
کلیدواژه‌ها
fiscal policy؛ uncertainty؛ provinces؛ Iran’s economy؛ Panel VAR
مراجع
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