اخبار و اعلانات

 آمار

تعداد نشریات31
تعداد شماره‌ها834
تعداد مقالات8,015
تعداد مشاهده مقاله14,853,726
تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله9,587,173
Mojab, Ramin, Jalali Naini, Ahmad. (1404). The Impact of Technological Progress on the Demand for Cash in Iran: an ARDL Modeling Approach. نشریه علمی دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان, 17(1), 103-120. doi: 10.22111/ijbds.2025.51608.2221
Ramin Mojab; Ahmad Jalali Naini. "The Impact of Technological Progress on the Demand for Cash in Iran: an ARDL Modeling Approach". نشریه علمی دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان, 17, 1, 1404, 103-120. doi: 10.22111/ijbds.2025.51608.2221
Mojab, Ramin, Jalali Naini, Ahmad. (1404). 'The Impact of Technological Progress on the Demand for Cash in Iran: an ARDL Modeling Approach', نشریه علمی دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان, 17(1), pp. 103-120. doi: 10.22111/ijbds.2025.51608.2221
Mojab, Ramin, Jalali Naini, Ahmad. The Impact of Technological Progress on the Demand for Cash in Iran: an ARDL Modeling Approach. نشریه علمی دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان, 1404; 17(1): 103-120. doi: 10.22111/ijbds.2025.51608.2221

The Impact of Technological Progress on the Demand for Cash in Iran: an ARDL Modeling Approach

International Journal of Business and Development Studies
مقاله 5، دوره 17، شماره 1، خرداد 2025، صفحه 103-120    اصل مقاله (983.91 K)
نوع مقاله: Research Paper
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22111/ijbds.2025.51608.2221
نویسندگان
Ramin Mojab* 1؛ Ahmad Jalali Naini2
1Department of Banking Studies, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Tehran, Iran;
2Institute for Management and Planning Studies, Tehran, Iran;
چکیده
Technological progress has transformed the payment industry. Although alternative payment instruments such as bank cards share some characteristics with banknotes, they are not direct competitors to cash. First, cash possesses unique attributes—its functionality without electrical power and its inherent anonymity. Second, statistical data indicate that the ratio of cash to M1 has stabilized at approximately 10% in recent years, primarily due to its substitution with demand deposits.
In this paper, we model the demand for banknotes by incorporating technology-related characteristics alongside conventional theories of money demand. Our approach has important implications for central bank, particularly in liquidity management, currency issuance, effective management of physical currency, and continued investment in digital payment infrastructures.
We adopt a macroeconomic perspective that considers banknote demand from both transactional and asset viewpoints. To this end, we estimate an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, which allows us to analyze both short-term and long-term coefficients within a framework of model uncertainty. A key focus of our study is the estimation of a payment system development index using logistic growth and Gompertz models, through which we assess its impact on cash demand.
Our empirical evidence supports the notion of S-shaped growth in the adoption of payment technologies. The findings demonstrate that advancements in the payment sector have led to a significant decline in cash demand. Moreover, while increased real economic activity exerts a positive and significant influence on cash demand, a higher opportunity cost of holding cash has a pronounced negative impact.
کلیدواژه‌ها
Logistic Growth Model؛ Payment Industry؛ Inflation
مراجع
  1. Amromin, G., & Chakravorti, S. (2009). Whither loose change? The diminishing demand for small-denomination currency. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 41(2-3), 315-335. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4616.2009.00207.x
  2. Arshadi, A., & Einian, M. (2011). Forecasting the demand for banknotes held by individuals (2011-2013). Tazehaye Eghtesad, (131), 117-121 (In Persian).
  3. Assenmacher, K., Seitz, F. & Tenhofen, J. (2019). The demand for Swiss banknotes: some new evidence. Swiss. J Economics Statistics 155, 14. https://doi.org/10.1186/s41937-019-0041-7
  4. Bank for International Settlements. (2024). Retail payments, currency and related indicators (data set). Retrieved from https://data.bis.org/topics/CPMI_CT/data (accessed on 25 January 2024).
  5. Bech, M., & Hancock, J. (2020). Innovations in payments. BIS Quarterly Review, March, 21-36. Retrieved from https://ssrn.com/abstract=3561180
  6. Bech, M., Faruqui, U., Ougaard, F., & Picillo, C. (2018). Payments are A-changing’ but cash still rules. BIS Quarterly Review, March, 67-80.
  7. Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures. (2018). Cross-border retail payments. Bank for International Settlements. Retrieved from https://www.bis.org/cpmi/publ/d173.htm1
  8. Fisher, J. C., & Pry, R. H. (1971). A simple substitution model of technological change. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 3(1), 75-88. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0040-1625(71)80005-7
  9. Friedman, M. (1989). Quantity Theory of Money. In Money (pp. 1-40). Palgrave Macmillan UK. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-19804-7_1
  10. Jakobsen, M. (2018). Payments are a-changin’ but traditional means are still here. Commentary on the CPMI “Red Book” statistics, December. Retrieved from https://www.bis.org/statistics/payment_stats/commentary1812.htm
  11. Jalali-Naini, A. R., & Rabie Hamedani, H. (2016). Crypto Currencies and the Blockchain Technology: An Evolutionary Review of Money and the Payment Systems. Journal of Money and Economy, 11(3), 245-265.
  12. Jalali-Naini, A. R., Riahi, Z., & Mojab, R. (2024). Evaluation of factors affecting the acceptance of Central Bank Digital Currency in Iran. Journal of Monetary and Banking Studies, 17(60), (In Press, In Persian).
  13. Jebarajakirthy, C., & Shankar, A. (2021). Impact of online convenience on mobile banking adoption intention: A moderated mediation approach. Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, 58, 102323. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jretconser.2020.102323
  14. Khiaonarong, M. T., & Humphrey, D. (2022). Falling use of cash and demand for retail central bank digital currency. International Monetary Fund.
  15. Kohli, U. (1988). A note on banknote characteristics and the demand for currency by denomination. Journal of Banking & Finance, 12(3), 389-399. https://doi.org/10.1016/0378-4266(88)90005-2
  16. Kucharavy, D., & De Guio, R. (2011). Logistic substitution model and technological forecasting. Procedia Engineering, 9, 402-416. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2011.03.129
  17. Mansfield, E. (1961). Technical change and the rate of limitation. Econometrica, 29(4), 741-766. https://doi.org/10.2307/1911817
  18. Mojab, R., Einian, M., Hadian, M., Hemmati, M., Zarei, Zh., & Latifi, Z. (2024). Analysis and examination of banknote holding patterns [Research Project]. Monetary and Banking Research Institute.
  19. Natsiopoulos, K., & Tzeremes, N. (2023). ARDL: ARDL, ECM and bounds-test for cointegration (R package version 0.2.4). Retrieved from https://github.com/Natsiopoulos/ARDL
  20. Porter, R. D., & Judson, R. A. (1996). The location of U.S. currency: How much is abroad? Federal Reserve Bulletin, 82(10), 883-903. https://doi.org/10.17016/bulletin.1996.82-10
  21. Rösl, G. & Seitz, F. (2022). Cash demand in times of crisis. Journal of Payments Strategy & Systems, 16(2), 107-119
  22. (2023). Shaparak economic bulletin. Shaparak, Tehran, Iran (in Persian).
  23. Shy, O. (2023). Cash is alive: How economists explain holding and use of cash. Journal of Economic Literature, 61(4), 1465-1520. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.20221632
  24. Stix, H. (2004). How do debit cards affect cash demand? Survey data evidence. Empirica, 31(2-3), 93-115. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663-004-1079-y
  25. Walsh, C. E. (2003). Monetary Theory and Policy. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press.
آمار
تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 421
تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 212


سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی. طراحی و پیاده سازی از سیناوب