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مدلسازی رابطهی پویا میان نهادها، آلودگی محیطی، توسعه اقتصادی و سلامت عمومی مبتنی بر رویکردهای میانگینگیری بیزین | ||
| اقتصاد باثبات | ||
| دوره 6، شماره 3 - شماره پیاپی 19، مهر 1404، صفحه 133-169 اصل مقاله (1.07 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22111/sedj.2025.51265.1580 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| بهمن قدمی1؛ محمدحسن فطرس* 2؛ غلامعلی حاجی3 | ||
| 1دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، ,واحد الیگودرز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، الیگودرز، ایران | ||
| 2استاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه بوعلی سینا، همدان، ایران | ||
| 3دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، واحد اراک، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اراک، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| هدف این پژوهش مدلسازی رابطهی پویا میان نهادها، آلودگی محیطی، توسعه اقتصادی و سلامت عمومی مبتنی بر رویکردهای میانگینگیری بیزین در کشورهای عضو منا است. پژوهش کاربردی است و برای بازه زمانی 1390 تا 1402 صورت پذیرفته است. برای مدلسازی روابط پویای میان متغیرها از رویکرد PTVP-DMA و PTVP-DMS،PBMA و PWALS بهره گرفته شده است. نتایج مشخص کرد رفتار پویایی غیرخطی میان متغیرهای تحقیق وجود دارد. بر این اساس، رویکرد مدلهای PTVP-DMA نسبت به سایر مدلها از دقت بالاتری برخوردار است. بر اساس نتایج مدل شاخص نهادی، متغیر توسعه اقتصادی با بیشترین دوره اثرگذاری مهمترین متغیر موثر بر شاخص نهادی بوده است. در مدل شاخص توسعه اقتصادی، متغیر شاخص نهادی با بیشترین دوره اثرگذاری مهمترین متغیر موثر بر توسعه اقتصادی بوده است. در مدل شاخص سلامت عمومی، متغیر آلودگی محیطی با بیشترین دوره اثرگذاری مهمترین متغیر موثر بر سلامت عمومی بوده است. در مدل شاخص آلودگی محیطی، متغیر توسعه اقتصادی با بیشترین دوره اثرگذاری مهمترین متغیر موثر بر آلودگی محیطی بوده است. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| نهادها؛ آلودگی محیطی؛ توسعه اقتصادی؛ سلامت عمومی؛ PTVP-DMA | ||
| مراجع | ||
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