اخبار و اعلانات

 آمار

تعداد نشریات31
تعداد شماره‌ها834
تعداد مقالات8,015
تعداد مشاهده مقاله14,852,482
تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله9,586,507
Rasekhi, Saeed. (1404). Macroeconomic Dynamics of Poverty in Iran. نشریه علمی دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان, 17(2), 231-265. doi: 10.22111/ijbds.2025.51556.2219
Saeed Rasekhi. "Macroeconomic Dynamics of Poverty in Iran". نشریه علمی دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان, 17, 2, 1404, 231-265. doi: 10.22111/ijbds.2025.51556.2219
Rasekhi, Saeed. (1404). 'Macroeconomic Dynamics of Poverty in Iran', نشریه علمی دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان, 17(2), pp. 231-265. doi: 10.22111/ijbds.2025.51556.2219
Rasekhi, Saeed. Macroeconomic Dynamics of Poverty in Iran. نشریه علمی دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان, 1404; 17(2): 231-265. doi: 10.22111/ijbds.2025.51556.2219

Macroeconomic Dynamics of Poverty in Iran

International Journal of Business and Development Studies
مقاله 11، دوره 17، شماره 2، دی 2025، صفحه 231-265    اصل مقاله (873.79 K)
نوع مقاله: Research Paper
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22111/ijbds.2025.51556.2219
نویسنده
Saeed Rasekhi*
Professor in Economics, Department of Economics, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Mazandaran Province, Iran, srasekhi@umz.ac.ir
چکیده
Poverty is one of the most challenging issues in the world, especially in developing countries. Much research has been done on poverty and its causes, but few studies have been conducted to examine the macroeconomic dynamics of poverty. The main purpose of this paper is to examine the macroeconomic dynamics of poverty in Iran, and for this purpose, a system dynamics model has been designed, simulated, and used for Iran. The simulation over the period 1990-2021 shows that, on average, at least the first four income deciles in Iran are below the international poverty line ($6.85 per day). According to the simulation results, international sanctions against Iran, hyperinflation, exchange rate shocks, and expansionary monetary and fiscal policies have increased the poverty rate, but in comparison, the impact of international sanctions has been greater than others. Specifically, the simulation shows that international sanctions have increased the poverty rate in Iran by about 10 percent on average. Even economic growth has not been able to significantly reduce the impoverishing effects of monetary shocks and inappropriate economic policies. According to the results, in addition to lifting international sanctions, targeted policies for sustainable economic growth and development should be implemented, and the Central Bank, while maintaining its independence, should refrain from implementing monetary policies that reduce the value of the national currency.
کلیدواژه‌ها
poverty؛ macroeconomics؛ sanctions؛ system dynamics؛ Iran
مراجع
  1. Abdulrahman, I. A., & Oniyide, G. D. (2023). Impact of monetary policy on poverty reduction in Nigeria. African Journal of Economic Review, 11(1), 101-119.
  2. Adebayo, A. A., Adebosin, W. G., & Michael, A. (2024). Macroeconomic Determinants of Poverty in Nigeria: Econometric Assessment of Selected Variables.
  3. Adeyemi-Tijani, A. (2025). The Impact of High Inflation on Food Security and Poverty in Nigeria. Available at SSRN 5083291.
  4. Agénor, P. R. (2004). Macroeconomic adjustment and the poor: analytical issues and cross‐country evidence. Journal of economic surveys, 18(3), 351-408.
  5. Ajisafe, R., Anyakudo, T., Ajide, F., & Akinkuotu, F. (2018). Dynamics Among Financial Inclusion, Monetary Policy, and Poverty Reduction in Nigeria. International Journal of Social Sciences, Management and Engineering, 2(1), 49-64.
  6. Akoum, I. F. (2008). Globalization, growth, and poverty: the missing link. International Journal of Social Economics, 35(4), 226-238.
  7. Alvaredo, F., & Gasparini, L. (2015). Recent trends in inequality and poverty in developing countries. Handbook of income distribution, 2, 697-805.
  8. Ames, B., Brown, W., Devarajan, S., & Izquierdo, A. (2001). Macroeconomic policy and poverty reduction. In: International Monetary Fund Washington, DC.
  9. Azis, I. (2008). Macroeconomic policy and poverty. Retrieved from
  10. Banerjee, A. V., & Duflo, E. (2008). What is middle class about the middle classes around the world? Journal of economic perspectives, 22(2), 3-28.
  11. Basu, K. (2006). Globalization, poverty, and inequality: What is the relationship? What can be done? World development, 34(8), 1361-1373.
  12. Baycan, T., & Öner, Ö. (2023). The dark side of social capital: a contextual perspective. The Annals of Regional Science, 70(3), 779-798.
  13. Beker, V. A. (2020). Poverty and income inequality: A complex relationship. Real-world economics review, 29(92), 167-185.
  14. Blank, R. M. (1993). Why were Poverty Rates so High in the 1980s? In Poverty and Prosperity in the USA in the Late Twentieth Century (pp. 21-57): Springer.
  15. Blank, R. M. (2003). Selecting among anti-poverty policies: can an economist be both critical and caring? Review of social economy, 61(4), 447-469.
  16. Blank, R. M., & Blinder, A. S. (1985). Macroeconomics, income distribution, and poverty. In: National Bureau of Economic Research Cambridge, Mass., USA.
  17. Blessing, O. O., Olusegun, A. J., & Adegbemi, O. (2023). Macroeconomic Fundamentals, Economic Growth and Poverty in Ecowas Franc Zone: Does Single Currency Matter?
  18. Bosco, B. (2019). One size does not fit all: Quantile regression estimates of cross-country risk of poverty in Europe. Economic Analysis and Policy, 62, 280-299.
  19. Bosco, B., & Poggi, A. (2020). Middle class, government effectiveness and poverty in the EU: A dynamic multilevel analysis. Review of Income and Wealth, 66(1), 94-125.
  20. Bradshaw, T. K. (2007). Theories of poverty and anti-poverty programs in community development. Community Development, 38(1), 7-25.
  21. Brooks, W. (2025). The linkage of economic growth, income inequality, and military expenditure.
  22. Burney, N. A., Yasmeen, A., & Niazi, M. K. (1989). Government budget deficits and interest rates: An empirical analysis for Pakistan [with Comments]. The Pakistan Development Review, 28(4), 971-980.
  23. Cammeraat, E. (2020). The relationship between different social expenditure schemes and poverty, inequality and economic growth. International Social Security Review, 73(2), 101-123.
  24. Cantillon, B. (2011). The paradox of the social investment state: growth, employment and poverty in the Lisbon era. Journal of European social policy, 21(5), 432-449.
  25. Central Bank of Iran, C. B. I. (2025). Time Series Database, various years, Available at https://tsdview.cis.cbi.ir.
  26. Christiaensen, L., Demery, L., & Paternostro, S. (2003). Reforms, remoteness and risk in Africa: understanding inequality and poverty during the 1990s. Retrieved from
  27. Collier, P., & Dollar, D. (2001). Can the world cut poverty in half? How policy reform and effective aid can meet international development goals. World development, 29(11), 1787-1802.
  28. Collier, P., & Gunning, J. W. (1999). Explaining African economic performance. Journal of economic literature, 37(1), 64-111.
  29. Cutler, D. M., Katz, L. F., Card, D., & Hall, R. E. (1991). Macroeconomic performance and the disadvantaged. Brookings papers on economic activity, 1991(2), 1-74.
  30. Daponte, B. O., & Garfield, R. (2000). The effect of economic sanctions on the mortality of Iraqi children prior to the 1991 Persian Gulf War. American Journal of Public Health, 90(4), 546.
  31. Davis, E. P. (2007). A confrontation of economic and theological approaches to “ending poverty” in Africa.
  32. Deakin, N., Thomas, N., Living, E. F. f. t. I. o., & Conditions, W. (1995). Public welfare services and social exclusion: The development of consumer-oriented initiatives in the European Union: European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions ….
  33. Demiray, B. Z., & Demir, I. (2024). Towards Generalized Hydrological Forecasting using Transformer Models for 120-Hour Streamflow Prediction. arXiv preprint arXiv:2406.07484.
  34. Dewilde, C. (2008). Individual and institutional determinants of multidimensional poverty: A European comparison. Social Indicators Research, 86, 233-256.
  35. Dollar, D., & Kraay, A. (2000). Growth is good for the poor. development research group. World Bank, Washington DC [online] Available from: http://wbln0018 worldbank org/Research/workpapers nsf/[Accessed: 2005 08.
  36. Domonkos, T., & Ostrihon, F. (2015). Inclusive Growth in Selected Central European Countries 1. Ekonomicky casopis, 63(9), 881.
  37. Dornbusch, R. (1987). Macroeconomic. In F. S. (Ed.): Mc Graw Hill, New York.
  38. Duiella, M., & Turrini, A. (2014). Poverty developments in the EU after the crisis: a look at main drivers. ECFIN Economic Brief, 31, 1-10.
  39. East, M., Africa, N., Gentilini, U., Hoogeveen, J., & Kazemi, M. (2023). Poverty Global Practice.
  40. Easterly, W., & Fischer, S. (2001). Inflation and the Poor. Journal of money, credit and banking, 160-178.
  41. Eke, P. O. (2022). An assessment of central banking on unemployment and poverty: The case of Nigeria. Journal of Management Info, 9(1), 20-37.
  42. Ekobena, S., & Yannick, S. (2014). Does monetary policy really affect poverty. In.
  43. Faidiban, A. P., Naukoko, A. T., & Tolosang, K. D. (2025). Pengaruh Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Tingkat Pengangguran Dan Jumlah Penduduk Terhadap Kemiskinan Di Kabupaten Manokwari. Jurnal Riset Multidisiplin Edukasi, 2(3), 89-104.
  44. Fellner, W. (1956). Patinkin's Integration of Monetary and Value Theory. In: JSTOR.
  45. Franzen, A., & Bahr, S. (2024). Poverty in Europe: How long‐term poverty developed following the financial crisis and what drives it. International Journal of Social Welfare, 33(2), 482-494.
  46. Gábos, A., Branyiczki, R., Binder, B., & Tóth, I. G. (2019). Employment and poverty dynamics before, during, and after the crisis. Decent Incomes for All. Improving Policies in Europe. Eds.: Bea Cantillon, Tim Goedemé, and John Hills, 34.
  47. Goshit, G. G., & Longduut, T. D. (2016). Indirect monetary policy instruments and poverty reduction in Nigeria: An empirical evidence from time series data. International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 6(4), 86-101.
  48. Halisçelik, E., & Soytas, M. A. (2019). Sustainable development from millennium 2015 to Sustainable Development Goals 2030. Sustainable Development, 27(4), 545-572.
  49. Heller, P. S. (1980). Impact of Inflation on Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries (Incidence de l'inflation sur la politique budgétaire dans les pays en développement)(El impacto de la inflación en la política fiscal de los países en desarrollo). Staff Papers-International Monetary Fund, 712-748.
  50. Hills, J., & Stewart, K. (2005). A more equal society?: New Labour, poverty, inequality and exclusion: Policy Press.
  51. Hollister, R. G., & Palmer, J. L. (1969). The impact of inflation on the poor: University of Wisconsin.
  52. Hossain, A. (1990). The monetarist versus the neo-Keynesian views on the acceleration of inflation: Some evidence from South Asian countries (with special emphasis on Pakistan). The Pakistan Development Review, 19-31.
  53. Humphrey, T. M. (1975). A monetarist model of the inflationary process. Economic Review, 61, 13-23.
  54. Johnson, C. K., & Mason, P. L. (2012). Theories of poverty: Traditional explanations and new directions.
  55. Jolliffe, D., & Lugo, M. A. (2018). Piecing together the poverty puzzle. (No Title).
  56. Jung, S. Y., & Smith, R. J. (2007). The economics of poverty: Explanatory theories to inform practice. Journal of Human Behavior in the Social Environment, 16(1-2), 21-39.
  57. Kanbur, R. (2001). Economic policy, distribution and poverty: the nature of disagreements. Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, 7(2), 122-145.
  58. Knippenberg, E. W. Y. L., Redaelli, S., Infanzon Guadarrama, M., Mostafavi-Dehzooei, M. H., Hrast Essenfelder, A., Osman, E. A. M., . . . Zaidi, S. (2023). Iran poverty diagnostic-poverty and shared prosperity.
  59. Loury, G. C. (1976). A dynamic theory of racial income differences. Discussion paper, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  60. Madzimure, T., & Mbedzi, E. (2021). Determinants of poverty: a relative panel data analysis among African regional economic communities. International Journal of Education Economics and Development, 12(3), 294-309.
  61. Magolie, J. (2024). Elevating Sub-Saharan Africa: The Effect of Infrastructure Investment in Alleviating Poverty.
  62. Marx, I., Vandenbroucke, P., & Verbist, G. (2012). Can higher employment levels bring down relative income poverty in the EU? Regression-based simulations of the Europe 2020 target. Journal of European social policy, 22(5), 472-486.
  63. Masilo, A. E. (2024). Macroeconomic stability and its relationship with economic growth and poverty reduction. Revista Académica de, 1.
  64. Meadows, D. (2008). Thinking in systems: International bestseller: chelsea green publishing.
  65. Morazes, J., & Pintak, I. (2007). Theories of global poverty: Comparing developed world and developing world frameworks. Journal of Human Behavior in the Social Environment, 16(1-2), 105-121.
  66. Moreno Calva, M. A. M., & Cruz Marcelo, J. N. (2024). Macroeconomics and poverty: an empirical review for Mexico 2005-2022. Problemas del desarrollo, 55(217), 103-126.
  67. Obayelu, A. E., & Edewor, S. E. (2022). Economic Inequality and Poverty Dynamics: What does Literature tell us? Innovation Journal of Social Sciences and Economic Review, 4(4), 24-35.
  68. Olaoye, O. O., Zerihun, M. F., & Tabash, M. I. (2025). Fiscal policy and poverty reduction in sub-Saharan Africa: is the relationship influenced by the business cycle? African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, 16(1), 79-97.
  69. Passadore, J., Sciacovelli, G., Unsal, F. D., & van Hombeeck, C. (2024). A Monetary Policy Framework for Developing Countries.
  70. Patinkin, D. (1956). Money, Interest and Prices, Evanston: Row, Peterson and Co. In: Harper and Row New York.
  71. Permadi, D. (2011). The decline of neo-liberalism and the rise of neo-keynesianism: a conceptual analysis. Ciência & Trópico, 35.
  72. Powers, E. T. (1995). Inflation, unemployment, and poverty revisited. Economic Review-Federal Reserve Bank Of Cleveland, 31, 2-13.
  73. Prasetyo, P. E., & Cahyani, E. N. (2022). Investigating Keynesian Theory in Reducing Unemployment and Poverty in Indonesia. The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 9(10), 39-48.
  74. Putnam, R. D. (2000). Bowling alone: The collapse and revival of American community. Simon Schuster.
  75. Ribeiro, A. P., Silva, S. T., & Guimarães, D. (2015). Macroeconomic fundamentals of poverty and deprivation: an empirical study for developed countries. The European Journal of Development Research, 27, 37-66.
  76. Romer, C. D., & Romer, D. H. (2020). Monetary policy and the well-being of the poor. In Handbook of monetary policy (pp. 887-912): Routledge.
  77. Sachs, J. D. (2023). The End of Poverty: Economic possibilities for our time: Penguin Random House.
  78. Saeed, M. (2020). The effects of monetary policy on poverty alleviation in Pakistan. Available at SSRN 3693375.
  79. Said, F., Musaddiq, T., & Mahmud, M. (2011). Macro level Determinants of Poverty: Investigation through poverty mapping of districts of Pakistan. The Pakistan Development Review, 895-910.
  80. Sanchez-Martinez, M., & Davis, P. (2014). A review of the economic theories of poverty. National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers(435).
  81. Sargent, T. J., & Wallace, N. (1981). Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic. Federal reserve bank of minneapolis quarterly review, 5(3), 1-17.
  82. Shaikh, P. A., Rasheed, B., & Shaikh, A. A. (2023). A new perspective on historical theories of poverty. Perennial Journal of History, 4(1), 1-25.
  83. Skrypnik, D., & Marina, S. (2019). Counter sanctions and well-being population of Russia: econometric analyses. Retrieved from
  84. Smeets, M. (2018). Can economic sanctions be effective?
  85. Statistical Center of Iran, S. C. I. (2025). Statistical Database, various years, Available at https://amar.org.ir.
  86. Sterman, J. D. (2000). Business Dynamics: Systems thinking and modeling for a complex world. MacGraw-Hill Company.
  87. Suhendi, S., Zulfa, A., & Nasution, L. N. (2024). Macroeconomic Analysis of the Poverty Levels on Sumatra Island. PKM-P, 8(1), 214-227.
  88. Tanjung, A. A., Daulay, M., Irsad, I., & Ruslan, D. (2019). The impact of monetary and fiscal policy on poverty in Indonesia.
  89. Tanzi, V. (1977). Inflation, Lags in Collection, and the Real Value of Tax Revenue (L'inflation, les retards de recouvrement et la valeur réelle des recettes fiscales)(Inflación, desfases en la recaudación y valor real de los ingresos tributarios). Staff Papers-International Monetary Fund, 154-167.
  90. Tarabini, A. (2010). Education and poverty in the global development agenda: Emergence, evolution and consolidation. International Journal of Educational Development, 30(2), 204-212.
  91. Tebaldi, E., & Mohan, R. (2010). Institutions and poverty. The journal of development studies, 46(6), 1047-1066.
  92. Tiberto, B. P. (2025). How Does Central Bank Independence Influence the Relationship Between Inflation, Income Inequality and Poverty? Retrieved from
  93. Tufekchiev, T. (2018). SOCIO-ECONOMIC THEORETICAL APPROACHES IN EXPLAINING POVERTY. Journal of Sustainable Development, 8(20), 50-58.
  94. Tyll, L., Pernica, K., & Arltová, M. (2018). The impact of economic sanctions on Russian economy and the RUB/USD exchange rate. Journal of International Studies, 11(1).
  95. White, H., & Anderson, E. (2001). Growth versus distribution: does the pattern of growth matter? Development Policy Review, 19(3), 267-289.
  96. World Bank, W. (2022). Poverty and shared prosperity 2022. Washington , DC, USA.
آمار
تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 260
تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 55


سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی. طراحی و پیاده سازی از سیناوب