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اثر بازار کربن بر صنعت آهن و فولاد: مطالعه موردی ایران | ||
| اقتصاد باثبات | ||
| دوره 7، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 23، تیر 1405، صفحه 45-87 اصل مقاله (915.33 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22111/sedj.2026.53886.1661 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| مریم حسین زاده1؛ علیرضا شکیبایی* 2؛ مهدی نجاتی3؛ سید عبدالمجید جلائی اسفندآبادی4 | ||
| 1دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران | ||
| 2استاد اقتصاد،گروه اقتصاد،دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد،دانشگاه شهید باهنر ،کرمان ،ایران، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران | ||
| 3.دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران. | ||
| 4استاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| فولاد یکی از صنایع اصلی منتشرکننده کربن و گازهای گلخانهای است. ضرورت سیاستگذاری برای کاهش کربن موردتوجه جهانی است. تجارت انتشار کربن یک سیاست زیستمحیطی مبتنی بر بازار و یک ساختار انگیزشی جایگزین است که برای ایجاد انگیزه کاهش انتشار با تحمیل هزینه کربن، طراحی و توصیه شده است. این سیاست از طریق تخصیص سهمیههای انتشار کربن به شرکتهای تجاری و گنجاندن هزینههای خارجی آلودگی زیستمحیطی در مکانیسم قیمتگذاری برای کاهش انتشار کربن عمل میکند. این مطالعه، با استفاده از مدل GTAP-E-POWER پویا، تشکیل بازار کربن منطقهای بین ایران و شرکای عمده تجاری آن (چین، هند، ترکیه و امارات متحده عربی) را طی دوره ۲۰۱۵ تا ۲۰۵۰ شبیهسازی و آثار آن را بر صنعت آهن و فولاد ارزیابی میکند. نتایج برای ایران نشان میدهد که در افق ۲۰۵۰، به ترتیب انتشار کربن 46/49، تولید 4/9، صادرات 01/34 و واردات 34/2 درصد کاهش و قیمت 08/19 درصد افزایش مییابد. این نتایج بیانگر آن است که اجرای بازار کربن، علاوه بر کاهش قابلتوجه انتشار کربن، تغییرات منفی در تولید، رقابتپذیری و تراز بازرگانی بخش فولاد ایران ایجاد میکند. در چنین شرایطی، واکنش دولتها و بنگاهها در قالب اتخاذ تصمیمات جبرانی و حمایتی از طریق سیاستهای صنعتی (از جمله: مشوقهای مالی و اعتباری، مالیاتی، فناورانه و توانمندسازی مهارتی) ضرورت دارد. این واکنش شرط لازم برای کاهش آثار منفی ناشی از این تحولات است. در این راستا ایجاد صندوق نوسازی فولاد سبز از درآمد بازار کربن، تسهیل واردات فناوری کمکربن، توسعهی صنعت بازیافت فولاد در کنار اصلاح ساختار قیمتگذاری انرژی برای ایران توصیه میشود. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| سیستم تجارت انتشار؛ مدل تعادل عمومی قابل محاسبه؛ صنعت آهن و فولاد | ||
| مراجع | ||
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