| تعداد نشریات | 31 |
| تعداد شمارهها | 848 |
| تعداد مقالات | 8,174 |
| تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 16,076,348 |
| تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 10,604,153 |
برآورد نااطمینانی در شاخصهای سلامت عمومی و ایمنی و تاثیر آن بر رشد اقتصادی ایران | ||
| اقتصاد باثبات | ||
| دوره 7، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 23، تیر 1405، صفحه 5-44 اصل مقاله (1.02 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22111/sedj.2026.54994.1687 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| رامین امانی1؛ عباس عصاری آرانی* 2؛ الماس حشمتی3؛ لطفعلی عاقلی4 | ||
| 1دانشجوی دکتری تخصصی اقتصاد سلامت، گروه توسعه و برنامهریزی اقتصادی، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران | ||
| 2دانشیار، گروه توسعه و برنامهریزی اقتصادی، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران | ||
| 3استاد، دانشگاه هوشی مین، ویتنام | ||
| 4دانشیار، گروه پژوهشی اقتصاد کشاورزی، پژوهشکد اقتصاد، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| نااطمینانی در شاخصهای سلامت عمومی و ایمنی بهعنوان یکی از ابعاد بیثباتی نظام سلامت، میتواند پیامدهای گستردهای بر عملکرد اقتصاد کلان بر جای گذارد. پژوهش حاضر با هدف برآورد شاخص نااطمینانی در شاخصهای سلامت عمومی و ایمنی ایران و تحلیل اثر غیرخطی آن بر رشد اقتصادی طی دوره ۱۳۶۸ تا ۱۴۰۳ انجام شده است. بدین منظور، ابتدا با استفاده از مدلهای گارچ، نااطمینانی در شش شاخص کلیدی شامل نرخ باروری، شیوع HIV، موارد بیماری سل، شیوع دیابت، شیوع سوءتغذیه و مرگومیر جادهای استخراج و با روش میانگینگیری استاندارد شده، یک شاخص ترکیبی ساخته شد. سپس با بهرهگیری از مدل خودرگرسیو با انتقال ملایم لجستیک (LSTR1) و با در نظر گرفتن شاخص نااطمینانی بهعنوان متغیر آستانه، اثر غیرخطی این شاخص بر رشد اقتصادی مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. یافتههای مدل LSTR1 نشان داد که رابطه بین نااطمینانی سلامت و رشد اقتصادی در ایران وابسته به رژیم است. آستانه نااطمینانی 0/211 برآورد شد که بر اساس آن، رژیم پایین عمدتاً مربوط به سالهای دهه ۱۳۹۰ و ۱۴۰۰ و رژیم بالا مربوط به دهههای ۱۳۶۰ تا ۱۳۸۰ است. کشش منفی نااطمینانی در رژیم پایین (-0/451) تقریباً دو برابر رژیم بالا (-0/228) است که نشان میدهد در شرایط نااطمینانی پایین، اثر نهایی آن بر رشد شدیدتر است. کیفیت نهادی، نیروی کار و سرمایهگذاری فیزیکی در هر دو رژیم اثر مثبت و معنادار دارند، اما مصرف دولت تنها در رژیم پایین اثربخش است. اثر منفی جمعیت مؤثر بر تولید سرانه نیز در هر دو رژیم تأیید شد. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| ایران؛ رشد اقتصادی؛ نااطمینانی شاخصهای سلامت عمومی و ایمنی | ||
|
سایر فایل های مرتبط با مقاله
|
||
| مراجع | ||
|
Acemoglu, D. (2009). Introduction to modern economic growth. Princeton University Press. Princeton.
Ahmad, N., Raid, M., Alzyadat, J., & Alhawal, H. (2023). Impact of urbanization and income inequality on life expectancy of male and female in South Asian countries: A moderating role of health expenditures. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 10(1), 552. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-023-02005-1
Amani, R. , Assari Arani, A. , Heshmati, A. and Agheli, L. (2026). Health-Economy Uncertainty, Institutional Quality and Economic Growth in Iran: A Time-Varying Parameter Analysis. Iranian Economic Review, (), -. doi: 10.22059/ier.2026.408866.1008378
Amidi, S., & Fagheh Majidi, A. (2020). Geographic proximity, trade and economic growth: a spatial econometrics approach. Annals of GIS, 26(1), 49-63. https://doi.org/10.1080/19475683.2020.1714727
Anwar, A., Hyder, S., Mohamed Nor, N., & Younis, M. (2023). Government health expenditures and health outcome nexus: a study on OECD countries. Frontiers in Public Health, 11, 1123759. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2023.1123759
Arefy, M., Zayandehroudi, M., & Esfandabadi, S. A. J. (2024). Effect of Health Index on Economic Growth (Provincial Approach). Planning and Budgeting, 28(4), 165-194. https://doi.org/10.61186/jpbud.28.4.165
Azadnajafabad, S., Mohammadi, E., Aminorroaya, A., Fattahi, N., Rezaei, S., Haghshenas, R., ... & Farzadfar, F. (2024). Non-communicable diseases’ risk factors in Iran; a review of the present status and action plans. Journal of Diabetes & Metabolic Disorders, 23(2), 1515-1523. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40200-020-00709-8
Bahrami Nia, E. B., Shamsollahi, R., Izadi, S. H., & Komkoui, F. T. (2025). Investigating the Direct and Interactive Impact of Government Health Expenditure and Institutional Quality on Iran's Economic Growth. Evidence Based Health Policy, Management and Economics. https://doi.org/10.18502/jebhpme.v9i1.19419
Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., & Davis, S. J. (2016). Measuring economic policy uncertainty. The quarterly journal of economics, 131(4), 1593-1636. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw024
Baltagi, B. H., & Moscone, F. (2010). Health care expenditure and income in the OECD reconsidered: Evidence from panel data. Economic modelling, 27(4), 804-811. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2009.12.001
Beylik, U., Cirakli, U., Cetin, M., Ecevit, E., & Senol, O. (2022). The relationship between health expenditure indicators and economic growth in OECD countries: A Driscoll-Kraay approach. Frontiers in public health, 10, 1050550. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2022.1050550
Black, R. E., Victora, C. G., Walker, S. P., Bhutta, Z. A., Christian, P., De Onis, M., ... & Uauy, R. (2013). Maternal and child undernutrition and overweight in low-income and middle-income countries. The lancet, 382(9890), 427-451. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(13)60937-x
Bloom, N. (2009). The impact of uncertainty shocks. econometrica, 77(3), 623-685. https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta6248
Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity. Journal of econometrics, 31(3), 307-327. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(86)90063-1
Bongaarts, J. (2009). Human population growth and the demographic transition. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 364(1532), 2985-2990. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2009.0137
Box, G., & Jenkins, G. M. (1976). Analysis: Forecasting and control. San francisco, 10.
Celik, E. U., Omay, T., & Tengilimoglu, D. (2023). Convergence of economic growth and health expenditures in OECD countries: Evidence from non-linear unit root tests. Frontiers in Public Health, 11, 1125968. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2023.1125968
David, R. (2012). Advanced Macroeconomics, McGraw-Hill Companies. Inc., New York.
Demetriades, P., & Hook Law, S. (2006). Finance, institutions and economic development. International journal of finance & economics, 11(3), 245-260. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.296
Dijk, D. V., Teräsvirta, T., & Franses, P. H. (2002). Smooth transition autoregressive models—a survey of recent developments. Econometric reviews, 21(1), 1-47. https://doi.org/10.1081/etc-120008723
Dupas, P., & Miguel, E. (2016). Impacts and determinants of health levels in low-income countries (No. w22235). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w22235
Engle, R. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of united kingrom inflation. Econometrica, 50, 391-407. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912773
Fioret, C. (2023). Water justice as socioenvironmental justice. Ethics, Policy & Environment, 26(3), 406-421. https://doi.org/10.1080/21550085.2022.2090211
Ghys, P. D., Kufa, E., & George, M. V. (2006). Measuring trends in prevalence and incidence of HIV infection in countries with generalised epidemics. Sexually transmitted infections, 82(suppl 1), i52-i56. https://doi.org/10.1136/sti.2005.016428
Hanquet, G., Valenciano, M., Simondon, F., & Moren, A. (2013). Vaccine effects and impact of vaccination programmes in post-licensure studies. Vaccine, 31(48), 5634-5642. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2013.07.006
Houben, R. M., & Dodd, P. J. (2016). The global burden of latent tuberculosis infection: a re-estimation using mathematical modelling. PLoS medicine, 13(10), e1002152. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002152
Hunter, P. R., MacDonald, A. M., & Carter, R. C. (2010). Water supply and health. PLoS medicine, 7(11), e1000361. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1000361
Hussain, Z., Mehmood, B., Khan, M. K., & Tsimisaraka, R. S. M. (2022). Green growth, green technology, and environmental health: evidence from high-GDP countries. Frontiers in Public Health, 9, 816697. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2021.816697
James, S. L., Lucchesi, L. R., Bisignano, C., Castle, C. D., Dingels, Z. V., Fox, J. T., ... & Mokdad, A. H. (2020). Morbidity and mortality from road injuries: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Injury prevention, 26(Suppl 2), i46-i56. https://doi.org/10.1136/injuryprev-2019-043302corr1
Kassebaum, N. J., Barber, R. M., Bhutta, Z. A., Dandona, L., Gething, P. W., Hay, S. I., ... & Ding, E. L. (2016). Global, regional, and national levels of maternal mortality, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. The lancet, 388(10053), 1775-1812. https://doi.org/10.1097/01.ogx.0000511935.64476.66
Kassebaum, N. J., Jasrasaria, R., Naghavi, M., Wulf, S. K., Johns, N., Lozano, R., ... & Murray, C. J. (2014). A systematic analysis of global anemia burden from 1990 to 2010. Blood, 123(5), 615-624. https://doi.org/10.1182/blood-2013-06-508325
Khan, M. A., Kong, D., Xiang, J., & Zhang, J. (2020). Impact of institutional quality on financial development: cross-country evidence based on emerging and growth-leading economies. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 56(15), 3829-3845. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496x.2019.1588725
Knight, F. H. (1921). Risk, uncertainty and profit (Vol. 31). Houghton Mifflin. Massachusetts.
Law, S. H., & Azman-Saini, W. N. W. (2008). The quality of institutions and financial development (MPRA Paper No. 12107). University Library of Munich, Germany. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/12107/
Lipset, S. M. (1959). Some social requisites of democracy: Economic development and political legitimacy1. American political science review, 53(1), 69-105. https://doi.org/10.2307/1951731
Liu, L., Oza, S., Hogan, D., Chu, Y., Perin, J., Zhu, J., ... & Black, R. E. (2016). Global, regional, and national causes of under-5 mortality in 2000–15: an updated systematic analysis with implications for the Sustainable Development Goals. The Lancet, 388(10063), 3027-3035. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(16)31593-8
Lutz, W., & Qiang, R. (2002). Determinants of human population growth. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences, 357(1425), 1197-1210. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2002.1121
Maestas, N., Mullen, K. J., & Powell, D. (2023). The effect of population aging on economic growth, the labor force, and productivity. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 15(2), 306-332. https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20190196
Mankiw, N. G., Romer, D., & Weil, D. N. (1992). A contribution to the empirics of economic growth. The quarterly journal of economics, 107(2), 407-437. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118477
McCullough, J. M., Speer, M., Magnan, S., Fielding, J. E., Kindig, D., & Teutsch, S. M. (2020). Reduction in US health care spending required to meet the Institute of Medicine’s 2030 target. American Journal of Public Health, 110(12), 1735-1740. https://doi.org/10.2105/ajph.2020.305793
Moss W. J. (2017). Measles. Lancet (London, England), 390(10111), 2490–2502. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(17)31463-0
Naghavi, M. (2019). Global, regional, and national burden of suicide mortality 1990 to 2016: systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. bmj, 364. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.l94
Nikzadian, S. A., Aghili, L., Assari Arani, A., & Sadeghi Saqdol, H. (2019). Modeling the Impact of Health on Economic Growth in Natural Resource-Dependent Economies (with a Focus on the Health Situation in Iran). PhD dissertation, Faculty of Management and Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran. (In Persian).
North, D. C. (1990). Institutions, institutional change and economic performance. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge.
Otten, T. M., Grimm, S. E., Ramaekers, B., & Joore, M. A. (2023). Comprehensive review of methods to assess uncertainty in health economic evaluations. Pharmacoeconomics, 41(6), 619-632. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40273-023-01242-1
Ozyilmaz, A., Bayraktar, Y., Isik, E., Toprak, M., Er, M. B., Besel, F., ... & Collins, S. (2022). The relationship between health expenditures and economic growth in EU countries: empirical evidence using panel fourier toda–yamamoto causality test and regression models. International journal of environmental research and public health, 19(22), 15091. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192215091
Qingyuan, S. H. E. N., Chang, B., Guoyu, Y. I. N., & Wendong, W. A. N. G. (2020). The impact of health investment on economic growth: evidence from China. Iranian Journal of Public Health, 49(4), 684. https://doi.org/10.18502/ijph.v49i4.3174
Quandt, R. E. (1958). The estimation of the parameters of a linear regression system obeying two separate regimes. Journal of the american statistical association, 53(284), 873-880. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1958.10501484
Romer, P. M. (1990). Endogenous technological change. Journal of political Economy, 98(5, Part 2), S71-S102. https://doi.org/10.1086/261725
Saeedi, P., Petersohn, I., Salpea, P., Malanda, B., Karuranga, S., Unwin, N., ... & IDF Diabetes Atlas Committee. (2019). Global and regional diabetes prevalence estimates for 2019 and projections for 2030 and 2045: Results from the International Diabetes Federation Diabetes Atlas. Diabetes research and clinical practice, 157, 107843. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.diabres.2019.107843
Safavi, M., Abtahi, S. Y., Alavirad, A., & Dehghantafti, M. A. (2025). Analysis of the Regime-Dependent Effects of Macroeconomic Variables on Household Health and Medical Expenditures in Iran. SSU_Journals, 33(9), 9438-9451. https://doi.org/10.18502/ssu.v33i9.20418 (In Persian)
Salvatore, D. M. (2014). International economics (12th ed.). Pearson Education. New York City.
Schweitzer, A., Horn, J., Mikolajczyk, R. T., Krause, G., & Ott, J. J. (2015). Estimations of worldwide prevalence of chronic hepatitis B virus infection: a systematic review of data published between 1965 and 2013. The Lancet, 386(10003), 1546-1555. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(15)61412-x
Shokrolahi Shirazi, E., Khodaparast Shirazi, J., Zare, H., & Ebrahimi, M. (2024). The effects of health and treatment expenses on business cycles of Iran's economy. International Journal of Nonlinear Analysis and Applications, 15(10), 91-105. https://doi.org/10.22075/ijnaa.2023.31340.4614
Simonovic, N., Taber, J. M., Scherr, C. L., Dean, M., Hua, J., Howell, J. L., ... & Politi, M. C. (2023). Uncertainty in healthcare and health decision making: Five methodological and conceptual research recommendations from an interdisciplinary team. Journal of behavioral medicine, 46(4), 541-555. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10865-022-00384-5
Sun, Z., Haseeb, M., & Bala, M. M. (2026). Institutions matter for sustainable development: Economic growth, structural transformation, efficiency, and health outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa. Sustainable Development, 1–25. https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.71321
Tariq, H., Pathirage, C., & Fernando, T. (2021). Measuring community disaster resilience at local levels: An adaptable resilience framework. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 62, 102358. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102358
Teräsvirta, T. (1994). Specification, estimation, and evaluation of smooth transition autoregressive models. Journal of the american Statistical association, 89(425), 208-218. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1994.10476462
Watson, S. I., Sahota, H., Taylor, C. A., Chen, Y. F., & Lilford, R. J. (2018). Cost-effectiveness of health care service delivery interventions in low and middle income countries: a systematic review. Global health research and policy, 3(1), 17. https://doi.org/10.1186/s41256-018-0073-z
World Bank. (2022). World development report 2022: Universal health coverage and equity. The World Bank. https://www.worldbank.org/ext/en/topic/health/universal-health-coverage
World Health Organization. (2023). World health statistics 2022: Monitoring health for the SDGs. World Health Organization. https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240074323
| ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 35 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 15 |
||