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بررسی رابطه بین شوک سرمایه انسانی، رشد اقتصادی و قیمت مسکن با استفاده از الگوی خودرگرسیونی برداری پانل | ||
اقتصاد باثبات | ||
دوره 2، شماره 3 - شماره پیاپی 4، آذر 1400، صفحه 31-59 اصل مقاله (1.49 M) | ||
نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22111/sedj.2021.40368.1131 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
علی اکبر قلی زاده* 1؛ شهلا صمدی پور2 | ||
1گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اجتماعی، عضو هیئت علمی دانشگاه بوعلی سینا، همدان، ایران | ||
2گروه اقتصاد.دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه بوعلی سینا، همدان، ایران | ||
چکیده | ||
مطالعات مختلفی اثر شوک تولید ناخالص داخلی بر قیمت مسکن را مورد بررسی قرار داه اند اما بررسی اثر شوک سرمایه انسانی بر قیمت مسکن موضوع جدیدی است که در این مقاله برگرفته از مطالعه یانگ و پان (2020) تلاش می کند این موضوع را بررسی و نتایج را تحلیل نماید. جامعه آماری پژوهش استان های کشور ایران است و از بین اطلاعات اقتصادی موجود، سال های 1391 تا 1397 به عنوان نمونه، انتخاب شده است. به منظور تحلیل دادهها از تکنیک خودرگرسیون برداری پانل استفاده شد. نتایج به دست آمده از مدل سازی رگرسیونی نشان می دهد؛ سرمایه انسانی از طریق کانال هایی اثر تکانه ای بر قیمت مسکن دارد از جمله اینکه؛ ارتقاء سرمایه انسانی منجر به افزایش تقاضا برای مسکن و بالا رفتن قیمت می شود. نتایج تابع عکس العمل آنی نشان می دهد واکنش سرمایه انسانی (قیمت مسکن) به نوسانات قیمت مسکن (سرمایه انسانی) و واکنش تولید به نوسانات سرمایه انسانی بیشتر از متغیرهای دیگر است. نتایج آنالیز واریانس نشان دهنده میزان توضیحدهی قیمت مسکن برای تولید ناخالص داخلی (18%) و سرمایه انسانی (1%) نسبت به سایر متغیرها بالاتر است. لذا، رونق بازار مسکن میتواند تأثیر مثبتی بر اقتصاد داشته باشد. تأثیری که روتق بازار مسکن (تولید) بر تولید (رونق بازار مسکن) میگذارد، به مراتب بیشتر از تأثیر سرمایه انسانی است. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
سرمایه انسانی؛ رشد اقتصادی؛ قیمت مسکن؛ الگوی خودرگرسیونی برداری پانل | ||
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