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شناسایی عوامل موثر بر رفاه اجتماعی ایران تحت نا اطمینانی : رویکرد متوسط گیری بیزی | ||
اقتصاد باثبات | ||
مقاله 3، دوره 3، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 6، فروردین 1401، صفحه 61-97 اصل مقاله (2.11 M) | ||
نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22111/sedj.2022.40421.1156 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
محمد علیزاده* 1؛ غلامرضا نعمتی2؛ محمدحسن فطرس3؛ مریم خداوردی سامانی4؛ دینا کبیری5 | ||
1دانشیارگروه اقتصاد، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه لرستان، خرمآباد، ایران. | ||
2دکتری اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه لرستان، خرمآباد، ایران. | ||
3استاد دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه بوعلی سینا همدان، همدان، ایران، | ||
4دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه لرستان، خرمآباد، ایران. | ||
5دانشآموخته کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد،گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه آزاد واحد تهران مرکزی، تهران، ایران. | ||
چکیده | ||
ارتقای کیفیت زندگی و سطح رفاه اجتماعی از اهداف اصلی سیاستگذاران اقتصادی است. باوجوداینکه فضای اقتصاد کلان تأثیر و نقش مهمی در سطح رفاه اجتماعی دارد اما بیاطلاعی از مدلی که بتواند بهدرستی توضیحدهنده رفاه اجتماعی باشـد، نااطمینانیهایی را در مدلهای رایج و معمول ایجاد کرده است، علاوه براین تعدد عوامل مؤثر بر رفاه اجتماعی منجر به نااطمینانی از صحت تصریح مدل شده و مانع اجماعِ پژوهشگران، در مورد عوامل کلیدی تعیینکننده رفاه اجتماعی شده است. بدین منظور مطالعه حاضر به شناسایی و تعیین عوامل مؤثر بر شاخص رفاه اجتماعی (تیاسن) در اقتصاد ایران و با استفاده از رویکرد میانگینگیری بیزین بر اساس دادههای سری زمانی از سال 1375 تا 1397 و در شرایط نااطمینانی مدل پرداخته است که بـا انجام محاسبات حاصل از بـرآورد 260 هـزار رگرسـیون، تعـداد 8 متغیـر بهعنوان متغیرهای قوی و غیرشکننده مشخص شدند؛ که شامل متغیرهای (نرخ ارز، شاخص فلاکت، درآمدهای مالیاتی، درآمدهای نفتی) با علامت منفی و متغیرهای (نرخ رشد شهرنشینی، درجه باز بودن اقتصاد، شاخصهای سلامت و فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات) با علامت مثبت میباشد. سایر متغیرها اثر خود را در حضور متغیرهـای غیرشـکننده ازدستدادهاند و شواهد قوی برای مؤثر بودن آنها بر رفاه اجتماعی طی دوره موردبررسی وجود ندارد. با توجه به خروجی نتایج میتوان نتیجه گرفت که بهمنظور ارتقاء و بهبود رفاه اجتماعی در کشور و در تدوین سیاستها و برنامهها رفاهی میبایست به متغیرهای انتخابشده توجه بیشتری نمود. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
رفاه اجتماعی؛ متوسط گیری مدل بیزی؛ نااطمینانیمدل | ||
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