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Eftekhari, Mobin, Eslaminezhad, Seyed Ahmad, Ghaemi, Maryam, Ghorani, Mohsen, Akbari, Mohammad. (1402). Analyzing and predicting drought in arid and semi-arid regions by using atmospheric general circulation model and RCP scenarios. نشریه علمی دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان, 7(13), 1-9. doi: 10.22111/jhe.2023.46835.1103
Mobin Eftekhari; Seyed Ahmad Eslaminezhad; Maryam Ghaemi; Mohsen Ghorani; Mohammad Akbari. "Analyzing and predicting drought in arid and semi-arid regions by using atmospheric general circulation model and RCP scenarios". نشریه علمی دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان, 7, 13, 1402, 1-9. doi: 10.22111/jhe.2023.46835.1103
Eftekhari, Mobin, Eslaminezhad, Seyed Ahmad, Ghaemi, Maryam, Ghorani, Mohsen, Akbari, Mohammad. (1402). 'Analyzing and predicting drought in arid and semi-arid regions by using atmospheric general circulation model and RCP scenarios', نشریه علمی دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان, 7(13), pp. 1-9. doi: 10.22111/jhe.2023.46835.1103
Eftekhari, Mobin, Eslaminezhad, Seyed Ahmad, Ghaemi, Maryam, Ghorani, Mohsen, Akbari, Mohammad. Analyzing and predicting drought in arid and semi-arid regions by using atmospheric general circulation model and RCP scenarios. نشریه علمی دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان, 1402; 7(13): 1-9. doi: 10.22111/jhe.2023.46835.1103

Analyzing and predicting drought in arid and semi-arid regions by using atmospheric general circulation model and RCP scenarios

Journal of Hydrosciences and Environment
دوره 7، شماره 13، شهریور 2023، صفحه 1-9    اصل مقاله (600.79 K)
نوع مقاله: Research Paper
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22111/jhe.2023.46835.1103
نویسندگان
Mobin Eftekhari* 1؛ Seyed Ahmad Eslaminezhad2؛ Maryam Ghaemi3؛ Mohsen Ghorani4؛ Mohammad Akbari5
1Ph.D. Student in Water Resources Engineering, University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran
2Department of Surveying and Geomatics Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
3Allame Helli High School, Birjand Education Department, Birjand, Iran
4Department of Surveying and Geomatics Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran,Tehran, Iran
5Department of Civil Engineering, University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran
چکیده
Drought is a climatic phenomenon that almost happens in every climate situation, because Iran country is located in the arid belt of earth, the importance of drought and analyzing it in the past and future is important for us to programming and managing the water resources. In this research which was done in the study area of the watershed region of Kashfrud, the effect of climatic changes in the climatic precipitation parameter under two scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in the study period (19987-2016) was analyzed and surveyed. To analyze drought in the study region by using Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and surface water supply index (SWSI), the occurrence and time of climatic and hydrological drought were analyzed. For predicting the future period precipitation by atmospheric general circulation model of MIROC5 and by using small scale (Delta) method under release scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the future precipitation data were achieved, then standard precipitation index in the next 30 years’ period (2019-2048) was calculated. Using the implemented calculations in standard precipitation index and analyzing the results in the next 30 years, the number of dry and very dry months; means index number less than - 1.5, in the study area was achieved. Based on the achieved results from the standard precipitation index (SPI) in the annual scale in Mashhad and Golmakan station, the first decades of the study period (1987-1996) and future periods (2019-2028) are the driest periods. Also, the results of hydrologic drought index in annual scale in Mashhad station indicates 19 dry years and in Golmakan station indicates 16 dry years.
کلیدواژه‌ها
Drought؛ Climatic changes؛ RCP scenarios؛ Atmospheric general circulation model؛ Kashfrud
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تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 30
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