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اثر شاخص ریسک امنیت انرژی بر ثبات اقتصادی در ایران | ||
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مقاله 6، دوره 4، شماره 3 - شماره پیاپی 12، آذر 1402، صفحه 134-164 اصل مقاله (1.61 M) | ||
نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22111/sedj.2023.46891.1399 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
سیدمحمدقائم ذبیحی* 1؛ فاطمه اکبری2؛ نرگس صالح نیا3 | ||
1دانشجوی دکتری علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصادی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران | ||
2دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصادی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران | ||
3دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصادی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران | ||
چکیده | ||
تضمین امنیت انرژی یکی از حیاتیترین اهداف برای کشورهایی است که به دنبال توسعه اقتصادی پایدار هستند، زیرا نوسانات در بازارهای جهانی انرژی منجر به بیثباتی اقتصادی برای کشورهای صادرکننده انرژی (همچون ایران) میشود. همچنین کشورهای درحالتوسعه (مانند ایران) دلایلی برای نگرانی خود در مورد امنیت انرژی دارند؛ اول، آنها فاقد توانایی بهکارگیری فناوریهای انرژی وارداتی هستند که منجر به وابستگی به دانش فنی خارجی میشود. دوم، این کشورها فاقد حکمرانی خوب برای مدیریت مؤثر فناوریهای انرژی هستند. سوم، در موارد اختلال در اثر رویدادهای طبیعی یا انسانساز، زیرساختهای انرژی در این کشورها آسیبپذیرتر است. در این راستا، پژوهش حاضر به دنبال بررسی نقش شاخص ریسک امنیت انرژی در بهبود ثبات اقتصادی کشور ایران با بهرهگیری از رویکرد بسیار جدید و تازه مدلسازی رگرسیون کوانتایل بر کوانتایل (QQR) در بازه زمانی سالانه 1991 الی 2021 است. نتایج حاصله مبین آن است که در کوانتایل (0.5 تا 0.7) شاخص ریسک امنیت انرژی و کوانتایل (4/0 تا 9/0) ثبات اقتصادیارتباط منفی وجود دارد؛ بنابراین، شاخص ریسک امنیت انرژی باعث میشود که ثبات اقتصادی کاهش یابد. همچنین در کوانتایل (0.1 تا 0.95) نرخ تورم و کوانتایل (0.1 تا 0.7) ثبات اقتصادی ارتباط منفی و در کوانتایل (0.6 تا 0.95) نرخ تورم و کوانتایل (0.7 تا 0.95) ثبات اقتصادی ارتباط مثبت وجود دارد. بنابراین، نرخ تورم بالا بر ثبات اقتصادی در بلندمدت تأثیر منفی میگذارد. بدین ترتیب، نتایج حاصله اهمیت همکاریهای بینالمللی برای توسعه یک سیستم انرژی پایدارتر که موجب افزایش امنیت تأمین انرژی و ثبات اقتصادی میشود را بیشازپیش نمایان میکند. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
شاخص ریسک امنیت انرژی؛ ثبات اقتصادی؛ نرخ تورم؛ بیکاری؛ رگرسیون کوانتایل بر کوانتایل | ||
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