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ارزیابی اثرات شوک سیاست پولی غیرمتعارف در الگوی خودرگرسیونی برداری با قید علامت | ||
اقتصاد باثبات | ||
دوره 5، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 14، فروردین 1403، صفحه 63-89 اصل مقاله (886.55 K) | ||
نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22111/sedj.2024.46945.1401 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
محبوبه خادم نعمت اللهی* 1؛ تیمور محمدی2؛ عباس شاکری حسین آباد3؛ علی اصغر سالم4 | ||
1دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی، تهران، ایران | ||
2استاد، گروه اقتصاد نظری، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران، | ||
3استاد، گروه اقتصاد نظری، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران | ||
4دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد نظری، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران، | ||
چکیده | ||
رفع مشکلات حاصل از وضعیت رکود تورمی در اقتصاد ایران که با رشد اقتصادی کم و رشد اشتغال کند همراه است نیازمند اتخاذ سیاست هایی می باشد که یکی از آن ها می تواند سیاست پولی غیرمتعارف باشد. این مقاله، از الگوی خودرگرسیونی برداری با قید علامت استفاده می کند و به ارزیابی اثرات شوک سیاست پولی غیرمتعارف می پردازد. برای این منظور، تاثیر سه متغیر نرخ بهره حقیقی، تورم و تولید ناخالص داخلی برای دوره زمانی 1340-1400 در وضعیت وضع قید مثبت و منفی بر سه متغیر برآورد می شود. در این مقاله، نتایج برآورد مدل و توابع ضربه-واکنش بر اساس شناسایی و برآورد پارامترها بر مبنای تحمیل قید منفی بودن بر نرخ بهره متناسب با شوکهای سیاست پولی غیرمتعارف انجام می پذیرد. نتایج دلالت بر آن دارد که با کاهش نرخ بهره، تولید به مرور زمان افزایش می یابد. سیاست پولی غیرمتعارف می تواند نقدشوندگی بازار سهام را افزایش دهد. همچنین، با وام های با نرخ بهره پایین در راستای تولید با هزینه پایین و قیمت فروش پایین در ایران کمک کند. این سیاست می تواند برای خروج از وضعیت رکود تورمی در ایران در سال های اخیر مفید باشد. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
شوک های سیاست پولی؛ نرخ بهره؛ سیاست پولی غیرمتعارف؛ الگوی خودرگرسیونی برداری | ||
مراجع | ||
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