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بررسی رابطه بین متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی و فرار مالیاتی با استفاده از رهیافتهای غیرخطی | ||
اقتصاد باثبات | ||
دوره 5، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 14، تیر 1403، صفحه 151-181 اصل مقاله (1.01 M) | ||
نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22111/sedj.2024.47262.1415 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
معصومه مطلبی1؛ محمد علیزاده* 2 | ||
1دکتری اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه لرستان، خرمآباد، ایران | ||
2دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه قم، قم، ایران. | ||
چکیده | ||
هدف اصلی مطالعه حاضر بررسی رابطه بین متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی و فرار مالیاتی با استفاده از رهیافتهای غیرخطی است. در ابتدا، برای بررسی وجود قانون کوزنتس و وجود رابطه غیرخطی بین متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی و فرار مالیاتی از روش مارکوف-سوییچینگ و از آمار و اطلاعات طی دوره 98-1348 استفاده شد و بعد از تأیید وجود رابطه غیرخطی از روش خودرگرسیون برداری آستانهای نیز برای بررسی بیشتر استفاده شد. بر اساس نتایج روش مارکوف-سوییچینگ، وجود قانون کوزنتس بین تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه و فرار مالیاتی تأیید میشود. بنابراین، برای کاهش فرار مالیاتی لازم است سهم نفت در تولید ناخالص داخلی کاهش یابد و سهم بهرهوری در تولید افزایش یابد. برای متغیرهای بار مالیات مستقیم، مخارج تحصیل عمومی، مخارج دولتی منهای تحصیل، ضریب جینی و پول نقد خارج از بانک وجود قانون کوزنتس رد میشود؛ اما، وجود رابطه غیرخطی تأیید میشود. همچنین، برای مدل خودرگرسیون برداری آستانهای، چهار متغیر فرار مالیاتی، تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه، بار مالیات مستقیم و پول نقد خارج از بانک در نظر گرفته شد و متغیر فرار مالیاتی بهعنوان متغیر آستانهای انتخاب شد و مقدار آستانه فرار مالیاتی 1/21906 میلیارد ریال است. نتایج مدل خودرگرسیون بردای آستانهای، نشان میدهد که تکانههای تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه و پول نقد خارج از بانک بیشترین اثر را بر افزایش فرار مالیاتی دارند. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
فرار مالیاتی؛ برآورد غیرخطی؛ بار مالیات مستقیم؛ تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه | ||
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