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اثرات کلان اقتصادی و رفاهی سیاست مالی، مشوق مالیاتی در چرخه تولید (روش الگوی دادههای ترکیبی با تواتر متفاوت (میداس)) | ||
| اقتصاد باثبات | ||
| دوره 5، شماره 4 - شماره پیاپی 16، دی 1403، صفحه 99-131 اصل مقاله (937.43 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22111/sedj.2024.47792.1438 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| سمانه شکی1؛ کامبیز پیکارجو* 2؛ فرهاد غفاری3 | ||
| 1دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران. | ||
| 2استاد یارگروه اقتصاد، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران. | ||
| 3دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| در مطالعه حاضر به بررسی اثرات کلان اقتصادی و رفاهی سیاست مالی، مشوق مالیاتی در چرخه تولید با استفاده از روش الگوی دادههای ترکیبی با تواتر متفاوت (میداس) برای بازه زمانی متفاوت فصلی و سالانه پرداخته شد. در الگوی برآورد شده از دادههای سالانه نرخ موثر مالیاتی، شاخص ترکیبی رفاه اقتصادی، مخارج جاری و عمرانی دولت و دادههای فصلی قیمت نفت و نرخ ارز، حجم نقدینگی و شاخص تولید برای سالهای 1400-1370 استفاده شده است. مطابق نتایج تخمین مدل؛ نااطمینانی مخارج جاری و عمرانی دولت، حجم نقدینگی، نوسانات نرخ ارز و نوسانات قیمت نفت خام تاثیر مثبت و افزایش امنیت اقتصادی اثر منفی بر شکاف تولید دارد. نوسانات نرخ ارز، منجر به افزایش میزان بدهی خارجی شرکتهای تولیدی میشود و افزایش بدهی به طور کل کمبود نقدینگی را به همراه خواهد داشت که در مجموع کمبود نقدینگی بنگاه های اقتصادی اثر منفی بر چرخه تولید دارد. در حالت کلی میتوان عنوان کرد که با افزایش نوسان در وضعیت اقتصادی ایران، نااطمینانی در سیاستهای کلان مالی و ارزی، نوسانات قیمت نفت و بسیاری از عوامل دیگر، نوسان در بازار ایران افزایش یافته و همین عوامل، دلیلی بر کاهش تولید میباشد. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| سیاست مالی؛ مشوق مالیاتی؛ چرخه تولید؛ دادههای ترکیبی با تواتر متفاوت | ||
| مراجع | ||
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