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تبیین سناریوهای اثرگذار پیوندهای روستایی – شهری بر امنیت غذایی نواحی روستایی مورد مطالعه: نواحی پیراشهری دهدشت | ||
مجله جغرافیا و توسعه | ||
مقاله 1، دوره 23، شماره 78، فروردین 1404، صفحه 1-38 اصل مقاله (1.3 M) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22111/gdij.2024.47882.3613 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
علی اکبر عنابستانی* 1؛ سروش سنایی مقدم2 | ||
1استاد گروه جغرافیای انسانی و آمایش، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران | ||
2دانشجوی دکترای جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی روستایی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران. | ||
چکیده | ||
قدیمیترین و اصلیترین پیوند روستایی- شهری، پیوند در زمینه تأمین غذا بوده است بهطوریکه تداوم تولید محصولات غذایی در نواحی روستایی پیراشهری بهعنوان استراتژیهای امنیت غذایی، تأثیر مثبتی بر تنوع و امنیت غذایی شهرها داشته است؛ ازاینرو تدوین سناریوهایی که زمینة تحقق پیوندهای روستایی - شهری مؤثر در امنیت غذایی را فراهم میسازد، باید مورد توجه قرار گیرد؛ بنابراین هدف اصلی پژوهش حاضر، بررسی سناریوهای اثرگذاری پیوندهای روستایی- شهری بر امنیت غذایی نواحی پیراشهری شهر دهدشت میباشد که با مشارکت مدیران، مسؤلان و خبرگان دانشگاهی، ابتدا پیشرانهای اثرگذاری پیوندهای روستایی- شهری بر امنیت غذایی نواحی روستایی شناسایی و سپس سناریوهای مؤثر بر امنیت غذایی تدوین گردید. این پژوهش همچنین از نظر هدف کاربردی و بهلحاظ روش، توصیفی-تحلیلی است. روش گردآوری دادهها و اطلاعات بهصورت کتابخانهای، اسنادی و پیمایشی (مصاحبه) بود. با بررسی منابع علمی، 76 عامل تأثیرگذار بر پیوندهای روستایی- شهری مؤثر در امنیت غذایی شناسایی و در 4 بعد دستهبندی شدند. درمجموع، 25 نفر از مدیران سازمانهای مرتبط و متخصصان دانشگاهی مورد مصاحبه قرار گرفتند. تجزیهوتحلیل دادهها بر اساس تکنیکهای آیندهپژوهی انجام شد، ازجمله تحلیل ساختار و تحلیل اثرات متقابل با استفاده از نرمافزارهای (Micmac وScenario wizard). نتایج نشاندادند که 12 سناریو با سازگاری ضعیف و تنها یک سناریو با سازگاری قوی و پایدار (ناسازگاری صفر) وجود دارد. سناریوی اول که یک سناریو با جهت مثبت است، دارای مجموع امتیاز اثر متقابل 665 و ارزش سازگاری 5 است. درحالیکه سناریوی دوم که سناریوی نامطلوب است، دارای مجموع امتیاز اثر متقابل 94 و ارزش سازگاری 1- است. سناریوی سوم (پابرجا) نیز دارای ارزش سازگاری 1- بوده و با مجموع امتیاز اثر متقابل 36 میتواند یکی از سناریوهای محتمل برای آیندة پیوندهای روستایی- شهری مؤثر بر امنیت غذایی باشد. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
آیندهپژوهی؛ پیوندهای روستایی- شهری؛ امنیت غذایی؛ سناریو ویزارد؛ شهر دهدشت | ||
مراجع | ||
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