پیوندهای مفید
اخبار و اعلانات
آمار
| تعداد نشریات | 31 |
| تعداد شمارهها | 825 |
| تعداد مقالات | 7,925 |
| تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 14,583,865 |
| تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 9,440,710 |
Fiscal Policy Uncertainty and Industrial Investment in Iran | ||
| International Journal of Business and Development Studies | ||
| دوره 16، شماره 1، خرداد 2024، صفحه 229-259 اصل مقاله (906.39 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: Research Paper | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22111/ijbds.2024.49134.2126 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| Omid Safari1؛ Ahmad Assadzadeh2؛ S.Hossein Mirjalili* 3 | ||
| 1Ph.D. Candidate in Economics, University of Tabriz, Iran. E-mail: Safariomid2017@gmail.com. | ||
| 2Associate Professor of Economics, University of Tabriz, Iran. E-mail: Assadzadeh@gmail.com. | ||
| 3Professor of Economics, Institute for Humanities and Cultural Studies, Tehran, Iran.Email: Seyedhossein.mirjalili@gmail.com. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| Industrial investment in Iran, especially in the wake of sanctions’ intensification in the 2010s, decreased significantly. The government implemented fiscal policy which has been associated with uncertainty. In this paper, using a dynamic panel model and generalized method of moments, we examined the effect of fiscal policy uncertainty on investment in 24 industrial groups in Iran over the period 2002-2020. The results indicated that the growth of fiscal level shock,resulted in a low but positive effect on investment directly. However,the coefficient of cross effect between the growth of fiscal level shock and the fiscal policy uncertainty undermined the positive effect on industrial investment. The government has had two effects on industrial investment indirectly through the demand side shock. By creating demand, it has had a positive effect on industrial investment with the cross effect between the growth of the fiscal level shock and industrial sales. However, on the other hand, the growth of the fiscal level shock has been associated with the creation and growth of fiscal policy uncertainty, so that the cross effect between the growth of fiscal policy uncertainty and the growth of industrial sales on industrial investment shows a high negative coefficient. The results of these two effects suggest that due to high uncertainty,the indirect government effect on investment in 24 industrial groups is negative, which happens through the demand-side shock. Moreover, the growth of fiscal policy uncertainty, sanctions, and interest rates, respectively, have had the most adverse effect on investment in 24 industrial groups in Iran. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| Fiscal Policy Uncertainty؛ Fiscal shocks؛ Industrial investment؛ economic sanctions؛ Budget balance | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
- Akbarzadeh, A.; Pahlavani, M.; Mirjalili, S. Hossein (2018), “Growth and Development Management in Iran, An Analysis of Growth Constraints; grounded theory Approach”, Public Management Research, Vol.11, No.42, pp. 247-270.
- Anzuini A., Rossi L., Tommasino P. (2020), “Fiscal policy uncertainty and the business cycle: Time series evidence from Italy”. Journal of Macroeconomics, 65: 103238.
- Anzuini, A., Rossi L. (2020), “Fiscal policy in the US: a new measure of uncertainty and its effects on the American economy”. Empirical Economics. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-020-01984-3.
- Baker SR, Bloom N, Davis SJ. (2016), “Measuring economic policy uncertainty”. Quarterly Journal of Economics 131: 1593-1636.
- Beckmann, J., Czudaj, R (2020), “Fiscal policy uncertainty and its effects on the real economy: German evidence”, Chemnitz Economic Papers, No. 039, Chemnitz University of Technology, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration. 1-47.
- Bloom, N. (2009), “The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks”. Econometric, vol. 77, No.3: 623-685.
- Bloom, N. (2014), “Fluctuations in uncertainty”. Journal of Economic Perspectives 28:153-176.
- Bloom, N.; Stephen, B. and John, V. R. (2007), “Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics”. Review of Economic Studies, 74 (3): 391–415.
- Cont, R., & Tankov, P. (2003). Financial Modelling with Jump Processes (1st ed.). Chapman and Hall/CRC. 1-552.
- De Groot, K., Thurik, R. (2018), “Disentangling Risk and Uncertainty: When Risk-Taking Measures Are Not About Risk”. Frontiers in Psychology 9: 1-7.
- Emami, K., Ahmadi, L. (2011), The Uncertainty of Current and Capital Expenditures of the Government on Private Sector Investment in Iran's Economy, Economic Modeling Quarterly, Year 5, Number 4, pp. 41-56.
- Fernandez-Villaverde J, Guerron-Quintana P, Kuester K, Rubio-Ramirez J. (2015), “Fiscal volatility shocks and economic activity”. American Economic Review 105: 3352-3384.
- Gali, J. and Perotti, R. (2003), “Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe”, Economic Policy, vol 18(37), pp. 533-572.
- Ghirelli, C., Gil, M., Pérez, J.J. and Urtasun, A. (2019), “Measuring Economic and Economic Policy Uncertainty, and Their Macroeconomic Effects: The Case of Spain”. banco de españa, documentos de trabajo. N. º 1905.
- Golinelli, R. and Momigliano, S. (2009), “The Cyclical Reaction of Fiscal Policies in the Euro Area: The Role of Modelling Choices and Data Vintages”, Fiscal Studies, vol. 30(1), pp. 39-72.
- Gomes Francisco J, Kotlikoff Laurence J, Viceira Luis M (2012), “The excess Burden of government indecision”. Tax Policy Econ 26(1):125–164.
- Goodness C. Aye, (2021), “Effects of Fiscal and Monetary Policy Uncertainty on Economic Activity in South Africa”. Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 25(1):167-187.
- Hadian, E., Tahvili, A. (2014), the effect of fiscal policy fluctuations on private sector investment in Iran, Iran Quarterly of Applied Economic Studies, year 3, number 12, pp. 91-110.
- Hassett, K., and Metcalf, G. (1998), “Investment with Uncertain Tax Policy: Does Random Tax Policy Discourage Investment?”. Economic Journal, 109 (457): 372-393.
- Heydarian, S.; Pahlavani, M.; Mirjalili, S. Hossein (2023),” Financial Sanctions and the Imports of Intermediate and Capital Goods in Iran: DID Method”, International Journal of Business and Development Studies, Vol. 15, Issue. 2, pp. 101-134.
- Heydarian, S.; Pahlavani, M.; Mirjalili, S. Hossein, (2022),” The Impact of Financial Sanctions on Capital Inflow and Outflow (case of Iran), Journal of Money and Economy, Vol. 17, No. 1, pp. 67-88.
- Heydarian, S.; Pahlavani, M.; Mirjalili, S. Hossein (2021),” Financial Sanctions and Economic Growth: An Intervention Time-series Approach”, International Economics Studies, Vol. 51, Issue. 1, pp. 1-14.
- Hojjati, Z., Iqbali, A., Halafi, H., Gaskari, R. (2004), the consequences of fiscal policy on private sector investment in Iran, Iran Economic Research Quarterly, Vol. 7, number 22, pp. 133-155.
- Hosseinzadeh, M., MalekSadati, S. (2011), “Institutional barriers to investment and business in Iran, Business Research Journal, Vol 15, N. 59, pp. 25-55.
- Izadkhasadi, H., Arab-Mazar, A. (2016), “Analysis of the effects of efficient fiscal and tax policies on private investment in Iran: with an emphasis on corporate income tax and government fiscal indiscipline, Tax Research Journal, No. 32 (series 80) ). pp. 11-34.
- Jackson, C., Orr, A. (2019), “Investment decision-making under economic policy uncertainty”. Journal of Property Research, 1-33.
-Justiniano, A., and Giorgio E. P. (2008), “The Time-Varying Volatility of Macroeconomic Fluctuations”. American Economic Review, 98 (3): 41-604.
- Komijani, A. and Mirjalili, S. Hossein (2001), “Mechanism of Strategic Trade Policy for Industrial Export Promotion in Iran”, Iranian Journal of Trade Studies, Vol.5, No.20, pp.31-66.
- Mirjalili, S. Hossein and Karimzadeh, S. (2021),” Inflow and outflow of oil revenues: Scenarios for National Development Fund of Iran(NDFI)”, Iranian Economic Review, Vol.25, issue 4, pp.655-676.
- Mirjalili, S. Hossein. (2022),” Development plans, economic indicators and planning challenges in Iran (1979-2022)”, International Journal of Business and Development Studied, 14 (2): 25-43.
- Mirjalili, S. Hossein, (2015),” Schools of Economic Thought”, Institute for Humanities and Cultural Studies Press, Tehran.
- Mirjalili, S. Hossein, (2021),” Review of The Art of Sanctions: A View from The Field”, Iranian Review of Economic Studies, Vol.1, No.2, Autumn, pp.85-94.
- Mirjalili, S. Hossein; Mirdehghan, S. Abbas; Dehghan Khavari, S.; Valizadeh, R.,(2009),”Ranking Industrial Activities in Yazd province; Synthesis of Factor Analysis and Numerical Taxonomy Methods”,Journal of Economic Policy, Vol.1, Issue 2, pp.123-158.
- Mirjalili, S. Hossein; Saadat, H., (2020) , How to Escape the Middle Income Trap in Iran? Lessons from Malaysia, Thailand South Korea and China, International Economic Studies, Vol. 50, Issue.1, pp. 1-12.
- Popiel MK. (2020), “Fiscal policy uncertainty and US output”. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics 24: 20180024.
- Ricco G, Callegari G, Cimadomo J. (2016), “Signals from the government: Policy disagreement and the transmission of fiscal shocks”. Journal of Monetary Economics 82:107-118.
- Rodrik, D. (1991), “policy uncertainty and private investment in developing countries”. journal of development economics 36 (1991): 229-242.
- Romer, Christina, D., Romer, David, H. (2010), “The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks”. American Economic Review 100: 763–801.
- Safari, O., Assadzadeh, A. and Mirjalili, S. Hossein (2024), “Measuring Fiscal Policy Uncertainty in Iran”. journal of Money and Economy, forthcoming.
- Suri, A., Ebrahimi, M. and Salarian, M. (2011), Uncertainty in Government Consumption Expenditures and Economic Growth, Research Journal of Economic Sciences, Vol. 6, Number 11, pp. 107-124.
- Tehrani, I., Sayah, A. (2020), Investment Security Monitoring Report 10. Spring 2020 by Provinces and Business Areas, Research Center of the Parliament (Department of Economic Studies), serial number 17400.
- Wen, H., Lee, C. and Zhou F. (2022), “How does fiscal policy uncertainty affect corporate innovation investment? Evidence from China's new energy industry”. Energy Economics Volume 105.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105767. | ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 584 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 310 |
||