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بررسی آثار زیان رفاهی تکانهها تحت بانکداری ذخیره جزئی و کامل: رویکرد DSGE | ||
اقتصاد باثبات | ||
دوره 5، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 14، تیر 1403، صفحه 21-53 اصل مقاله (1.12 M) | ||
نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22111/sedj.2024.47990.1448 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
فریده خدادادی* 1؛ حسین صمصامی2 | ||
1استادیار ؛گروه اقتصاد؛ دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران، | ||
2استادیار؛ گروه اقتصاد؛ دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران | ||
چکیده | ||
هدف این پژوهش بررسی آثار زیان رفاهی تکانهها در شرایط بانکداری ذخیره جزئی و کامل است. برای دستیابی به این هدف، دو الگوی تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی با لحاظ واقعیتهای اقتصاد ایران طراحی و سپس به بررسی آثار تکانهها پرداخته شده است. پس از تخمین پارامترها به روش تخمین بیزین با استفاده از دادههای فصلی اقتصاد ایران طی دوره 1401-1370 نتایج شبیهسازی، بیانگر اعتبار مدل در توصیف نوسانات اقتصاد ایران است. مقایسه توابع عکسالعمل متغیرهای منتخب در دو الگو، نشان میدهد بانکداری صد در صدی، سبب شده است تا سهم تکانهها در ایجاد نوسانات متغیرهای کلیدی دستخوش تغییر شده و حتی جایگاه برخی از آنها با تکانه نفت و تکانه پولی تعویض شود. در خصوص زیان رفاهی تکانه در دو مدل پایه و مطلوب، نتایج نشان داد که کمترین زیان رفاهی مربوط به مدل مطلوب (ذخیره کامل) است. همچنین کمترین زیان رفاهی در مدل پایه (01479200/0) و مدل مطلوب (00001306/0) مربوط به حالتی است که ضریب شکاف تولید در تابع زیان برابر با 5/0 شود؛ یعنی اگر اولویت تورمی روی تابع زیان اعمال شود، مقدار عددی زیان رفاهی به صورت قابل ملاحظهای کوچکتر از حالات دیگر مورد بررسی است. این امر تأیید میکند که در هر دو مدل، اولویت تورمی از اولویت تولید در تابع زیان CB از نظر رفاهی مؤثرتر است. این بدان معناست که بانک مرکزی ایران بین تورم و نوسانات تولید باید بیشتر به تورم توجه کند، زیرا ذخیره گیری کامل سپردهها تاثیر بیشتری بر تورم دارد. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
بانکداری ذخیره کامل؛ بانکداری ذخیره جزئی؛ تکانه پولی؛ زیان رفاهی؛ تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی (DSGE) | ||
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