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تحلیل اثر تجارت بر رفاه اقتصادی در ایران طی نیم قرن اخیر | ||
اقتصاد باثبات | ||
دوره 5، شماره 3 - شماره پیاپی 15، مهر 1403، صفحه 107-136 اصل مقاله (895.86 K) | ||
نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22111/sedj.2024.48922.1481 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
شهریار زروکی* 1؛ مانی موتمنی1؛ فاطمه ملاتبارفیروزجائی2؛ مهدی حسن پور ورکلائی3 | ||
1دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد انرژی، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران | ||
2کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد انرژی، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران. | ||
3کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد نظری، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران | ||
چکیده | ||
تجارت خارجی تاثیر بسزایی بر رفاه اقتصادی و بر شاخصهای مختلف اقتصادی از جمله رشد و رفاه مصرفکننده دارد. بنابراین هدف اصلی پژوهش حاضر تحلیل و تبیین اثر تجارت خارجی بر رفاه اقتصادی در ایران است. برای این منظور الگوی پژوهش در دو قالب و با استفاده از رهیافت خود رگرسیونی با وقفههای توزیعی در دوره زمانی 1352 تا 1401 برآورد شد؛ بهنحویکه علاوه بر صادرات و واردات، از شاخص درجه باز بودن اقتصادی جهت سنجش تجارت خارجی و از شاخص ترکیبی رفاه برای محاسبه رفاه اقتصادی استفادهشده است. نتایج این پژوهش بر طبق دو شاخص تجارت جهانی، بیانگر تأثیر مثبت تجارت بینالملل بر رفاه میباشد و اندازه اثرگذاری مطلوب صادرات بر رفاه بطور معناداری بزرگتر از اندازه اثرگذاری مطلوب واردات است. نسبت رابطه مبادله به تولید ناخالص داخلی، صادرات نفت و گاز و درآمد سرانه حقیقی اثری مثبت بر رفاه دارند، در حالی که تورم، رفاه را کاهش میدهد. مطابق با یافتهها ضمن تاکید بر کنترل تورم و اتخاذ راهکارهایی در بهبود فضای تجارت مانند توسعه صادرات غیر نفتی، جذب سرمایهگذاری خارجی، حذف موانع غیرتعرفهای و ثبات نرخ ارز، پیشنهاد میشود که در جهت بهبود رفاه اقتصادی، سیاستهای صادراتی در مقایسه با واردات بیشتر مورد توجه قرار گیرد. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
رفاه اقتصادی؛ تجارت؛ رهیافت خودرگرسیونی با وقفههای توزیعی؛ ایران | ||
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